Environmental Foresight for Sustainable Development, Venezuela
Description
With the intention of promoting Sustainable Development in Latin America and the Caribbean, this initial research study in Northwestern Venezuela has been prepared.
By linking foresight methodologies and GIS technologies, the following online Delphi surveys have been designed with the purpose of including recognized organizations and communities in a primary research initiative based on six environmental issues concerning three industries: Agriculture, Oil & Tourism.
In the form of Delphi questionnaires, this initiative uses a combination of online tools and GIS technologies to gain opinion from the public before analysis the of results. By basing the results on these opinions, we will be able to identify the level of concern regarding environmental, social and economical issues within a country or regions. In terms of sustainable development requirements, what is needed is the extensive use of the many appropriate environmental technologies and management techniques that already exist.
Project Rationales
For the UK Technology Foresight Programme and numerous other foresight initiatives, Delphi surveys have been used as a consultative tool for Panels (experts in diverse areas covering a complete variety of markets and technologies of concern for a country or region, usually chaired by a senior industrial manager). The topics and issues raised are frequently generated by the Panels and directly reflect their concerns. The particular objectives have generally been:
- accessing the business and science and technology communities' opinions of the future developments in markets and technologies;
- assisting in achievement of commitment to results of consensus on developments; and
- informing the wider business and science and technology communities about the major issues being addressed in Technology Foresight and how their peers assess those issues.
In this work we present Strategy-Delphi Survey as a method for collecting and distilling knowledge from a group of participants/experts by means of a series of strategy-oriented questionnaires with dynamically controlled opinion feedback, with the purpose of producing comprehensive critical assessment and recommendations upon several strategies or actions engaged in complex medium-to-long-term decision-making processes.
Current Situation
The use of modern information technology such as GIS provides the resource manager with valuable tools for management and decision-making and brings a massive expansion in the analytical capabilities available today in the field of applied environmental research and pollution prevention . However, the primary limitation with the use of GIS is data availability. With sufficient data, it is possible to conduct an extremely detailed study of the region and delve deeper into the root of the environmental problem. At present this type of data is unavailable, nevertheless, for the purposes of this study one-kilometre resolution satellite images from NOAA (National Oceanographic Atmospheric Administration) have been processed to monitor differences in vegetation cover over time.
It is estimated that approximately 65% of the global population resides within a few kilometres of the coastal zone4. As this zone contains a sufficient portion of the planet's biologically productive ecosystems, it is of utmost importance that anthropogenic activity causing destruction and stress to these areas be controlled. Costal zone pressure as a result of agricultural activities, tourism, industrialization, and increasing population are major causes of concern since these activities produce irreversible environmental effects.
With reference to Venezuela's industrial activity, export earnings are a prime result of the oil sector (three quarters of total exports) with the country boasting the sixth largest proven oil reserves in the world. Although the agroindustry provides a weak GDP for the country, this sector employs 12% of the population . Therefore, social factors such as these must be considered in the management of coastal zone issues. Besides the environmental pillar of sustainability, social and economic factors must be examined in great detail since any change in a country's industrial activity for increasing environmental protection will have an affect on these other factors. Consequently, the intention of this Environmental Foresight approach is to promote the identification of strategies that are oriented towards sustainable development of a region.
Online Foresight Tools
Results
- Environmental Foresight: Use of online Strategy-Delphi Surveys (SDS) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Paper presented at the Jacques Maritain Institute conference (Italy 2002).
Posters
Poster presented at the European Commission conference (Belgium 2002).
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